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Figures and facts don't lie...

In Kenya,you need to win 25% of 5/8 of all the provinces alongside the popular vote. Going by the polls so far,both of the leading candidates will get the mandatory 25% in 5 provinces.

This election will be close but Raila will definitely triumph.

To begin with,I'll make three assumptions which will set the context in which the elections will be held;

1. Kalonzo joins ODM. Kibaki's goose is cooked.....

2. Kalonzo joins PNU. Were it to happen,Kibaki will still lose.
3. Things remain the way they are. THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO.

So,what happens then?

In 2002,the turnout was about 56%. There were 10 million registered voters and about 5.6 million valid votes cast.

According to the ECK,there are 14.2 million Registered voters today. Assuming that there'll be a heavy turnout,let's say 70%,and further assuming that all votes will be valid,there'll be about 10 million votes for the three presidential candidates.

Let me also say something else. Kenya's voting is tribal. It is just true and my prediction will have some of this tribal nonsense because that is how we vote.

Here we go: I'll begin by giving a prediction of each candidate’s base and then work outwords.

Raila Odinga has the Western Alliance i.e Luo,Kalenjin and Luhyas,Kalonzo has the Kamba and Kibaki has GEMA.

Raila will get about 1.5 million Luo votes,1.5 Million Kalenjin Votes and 1 Million Luhya Votes. (Kalenjin and Luhya votes are more than 1.5 & 1 million respectively but I have reduced the number to reflect that not 100% of these will go to Raila)

Kalonzo will get 850,000 Kamba votes
Kibaki will get 3 million GEMA votes

Out of a total of 10 million total votes,they amass 7.85 million votes from their strongholds leaving 2.15 million votes.

The 2.15 million votes from places other than their own bases will go like this:

Kalonzo will get 150,000.

KALONZO’s TOTAL PRESIDENTIAL VOTES WILL AMOUNT TO 1,000,000 VOTES or 10% of total votes cast.

That leaves 2 million votes for Raila and Kibaki.

To use the latest Consumer Insight polls,I'll give Kibaki 42% of the total votes. Infact,I'll be generous and give him 70% of the remaining votes.

70% of 2 million votes is 1.4 million.
Therefore,Kibaki gets a total of 4.4 million total votes.

Total valid votes cast: 10 million.
Kalonzo’s Total votes: 1 Million

Raila's Total votes 4.6 million.

Raila Wins!!!

Raila Odinga: ..........................4.6 million

Mwai Kibaki:........................... 4.4 million

Kalonzo Musyoka............... ..... 1 million

Total valid votes cast................. 10 million

Kibaki will do much better than the polls are showing at the moment but still lose!

Comments:

1. I gave Raila 1.5 million Kalenjin votes. That is a very conservative vote by the way as there at least 2 million registered Kalenjin votes. The GEMA votes are not as many as most people think,as the other tribes have been growing in numbers at a faster pace.

2.The number of registered voters in Nyanza is almost the same as in Central,and this time the turnover will be high in Nyanza for the first time considering what is at stake. Central province had the highest voter turnout in 2002. In 2007 Nyanza will have a similarly high voter turnout. The voter turnout in Western will also increase considerably.

3. Almost 500,000 of potential GEMA voters are in the diaspora. 90% of these will not travel back to Kenya to vote. This has not been factored in the figures above.